You've likely heard of the 80/20 rule. How can we apply this to the recovery of a long lost cat?
"The Pareto Principle states that 80 percent of a project's benefit comes from 20 percent of the work. Or, conversely, that 80 percent of problems can be traced back to 20 percent of causes. Pareto Analysis identifies the problem areas or tasks that will have the biggest payoff."
In our case, the "project" consist of the actions being taken to find a missing cat. The individual actions are not listed here because they are shown elsewhere, but as an example they include things such as placing posters, physical searches, using trail cameras, setting traps and so on.
The leading benefit of the Pareto Principle is that it gives us actions to focus on rather than dwelling on the unknown which eventually leads to doing nothing at all. Stated another way, the biggest payoff can be achieved by taking action on the best information we have, even if that information could be flawed or incorrect. It gets us into the field where additional information can be gathered or observed which benefits our next steps and moves the search forward.
I'll provide an example analysis for a cat that has been missing for three weeks. In this case, everything conceivable has been done by the cat owners, but to no avail. Then, during week three, a sighting report is received from a resident three quarters of a mile away. The person making the report saw a poster about the lost cat and phoned the owner. There was just enough information in the sighting report to believe it could have been the lost cat, but it lacked the specificity needed to be certain. Should action be taken to search for the cat in the area of the sighting? Yes.
Given that all other individual actions have been taken, the current best information is the new sighting. Now we can narrow down our actions by analyzing the known information.
1. Lost Cat behavior
In this case, the cat has been away from home for three weeks. By this time the cat has likely found some level of food, water and shelter. The cat is probably in hiding during the day and coming out at night as needed to eat and drink, then returning to the place of shelter. Cats are quite methodical in their travels, using the same and nearly exact pathways at about the same clock times in their movements.
2. Previous actions taken
If all other actions have been taken with little or no results or sightings, we can conclude that the cat is not in the areas in which these actions have already been taken. Hence, we move our actions to the area in which new information is gathered.
3. Sighting specific information
In the example case provided, the sighting was at night, in a rural area, by a person who had just seen the lost cat poster a day before. The sighting was of a cat crossing the "up the street" and going into an open space.
Unfortunately the person making the report did not provided specific information that would aide in the search, so it would be our job to obtain as much information as possible. What time was the sighting made? Which way is "up the street", is it uphill from where the person was standing, if so where were they standing - do not assume they were at their front door step. Using north, east, south and west is always best, but obtain what you can about the location of the person and the cat at the time of the sighting to the extent possible. If possible, have the person show you or have a map to be marked up showing the actual sighting locations. Does the street have lighting? Could any coloration of the cat be determined? Was the cat walking or running, did it appear injured or limping in any way?
The additional information would be very beneficial, but even void of it, there are now specific actions to be taken. Some or all may apply based on any new information.
1. Door to door handouts of posters in the neighborhood of the sighting.
2. Placement of camera trap(s) near the pathway of the sighting in a location where the cat would likely feel safe (e.g. out of the illuminated street) or along an existing pathway.
3. If the sighting time is known, bring a chair and observe the area quietly for an hour before, and an hour or more after the clock time that the sighting was made. The observer should be stationed about where the person making the report was located. If the sighting time is unknown, pick a three hour window of time just before dusk or an hour just before dawn. The observer should take no action if the cat is seen, other than to be a good observer.
4. If the cat is observed and there is a reasonable belief the cat seen is the lost cat, then the next step is to place a trap (not detailed here).
In conclusion, we have seen by example that we are maximizing our resources
by analyzing the information and identifying the tasks that will have the biggest payoff.
